Pence appears to be picking the worst number he can choose. And he doesn’t mention the fact that under the scenario laid out by the Lewin Group, people would still have health care coverage and their premiums reduced by 30 to 40 percent. He says the government would “deprive” people of health insurance, when actually the scenario is that they would choose a different option.
Even if you believe that an expansive government health care plan would drive private insurers out of business, that still doesn’t account for Pence’s “deprive” claim because the Lewin report he cites is focused on people who have chosen the government plan, not people who were left to the government plan after private options disappeared.
Finally, we have to include a caveat about the Lewin Group. The group says it operates with editorial independence, but it is a subsidiary of United HealthCare, a private health insurer.